Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
